Bond Markets Change
Strength and Weakness in 2008 vs. 2009

A look back at 2008 and 2009 shows how dramatically strength and weakness can shift in the bond markets.

The table below lists the returns of various fixedincome indexes in 2008 and 2009, and the returns (shown below) reflect almost a mirror image. They are sorted by lowest to highest returns in 2008.

2008: Government Bonds & Treasuries

In 2008, investors embraced a “flight to quality,” pouring money into US Treasury Bonds and very short term vehicles. This pushed up prices of government bonds as corporate bonds suffered, particularly lower quality, or high yield bonds. Yields on government bonds and money markets fell to astonishingly low levels.

2009: Corporate Bonds & High Yields

In 2009, the situation reversed course. Seeing opportunity in the higher yielding corporate sphere, and perceiving an improvement in the economy, investors gained confidence and pulled money out of government bonds and back into corporates.

Moreover, yields on government bonds were so low that even a small bump in yields put downward pressure on government bond prices.

Investors who continued to hold their long or intermediate term government bonds through the whole of 2009 would have little or nothing to show for it. Meanwhile, corporate bonds, especially high yields, charged ahead in 2009 after having been pummeled the previous year.

One lesson to draw from this is that no one has a crystal ball when it comes to the bond market, and simply looking at calendar year performance does not tell you what will do well or poorly the following year.

Maneuvering the capricious fixed income markets takes a nimble and flexible investment approach like the Flexible Income Strategy.